FOMC September: Risk for BTC
The Fed's next meeting lands September 15–16, and Bitcoin's 2026 track record isn't encouraging: three of the year's five FOMC decision days have already triggered bearish pivots. The worst came in late January, when Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair sparked $2.4 billion in crypto derivatives liquidations. Rates have held at 3.50–3.75% for five straight meetings, and the CME FedWatch tool currently puts the odds of another hold in September at 65.2%, versus 34.8% for a hike to 3.75–4.00%. On past decision days, liquidations in crypto derivatives typically ran $300–500 million. Without a clearly dovish signal or a rate cut, Bitcoin may struggle to break out of its current range. Keep an eye on BTC ahead of the meeting and exchange it at competitive rates on xbit.money.